A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
